Okay, first the facts: millions of people around the world spend a fortune on knowing about their future. And what they spend is not just money but invaluable time when they read predictions of all kinds in a variety of media.
But do they get their money and time's worth when they rely on a motley bunch of people who know zilch about them? Palmists, numerologists, tarot readers, and others who use all sorts of animals from parrots to Pomeranians. Can there be some truth in what they churn out?
If you really ask me, horoscopes suck. Especially the daily horoscopes appearing in newspapers, magazines and websites. And they suck big time. Here's why.
If you look carefully, most predictions are vague and based on common sense. They could have come from anyone with half a brain. Sample this prophecy I picked from a popular website: “Your curiosity is running on high, and you just won’t stand for anything less than the entire truth, no matter what question you ask. Your antennae will tell you whether it’s an honest answer.”
Well, my antennae tell me that not many people would admit that they'll “stand for less than the entire truth.” Needless to say, such a cloudy bit of mumbo jumbo would put me off rather than bolster my confidence – and boosting their self-assurance is what many horoscope readers look for.
Here’s another specimen from the Sunday edition of a paper: “You suffer a great deal because of others’ wrongdoing. Maybe it’s time you stopped others from taking you for granted. Just be more assertive and you’ll find all the happiness you deserve.”
Wow! Reading these lines, our bleary-eyed reader is sure to scream with self-pitying joy: “I told you so. See, it’s all their fault!” The advice may not turn our feeble fella into a bold brat, but it can perhaps make them feel a bit over the top.
Again, I'm not sure of the usefulness of the proffered suggestion. Tell me honestly, who benefits from being over-emotional in this day and age?
Wait, there’s more stuff coming up. This one was buried inside an old stack of newspapers. And it caught my eye when I was looking for something else. (Isn’t that how you find anything these days?)
It goes like this: “Your stars are shining bright and mighty. Just the perfect time to make that critical move you have been waiting for all your life. Lucky numbers 1, 3 and 7; favorable colors Blue and Orange.”
Oh, really? You mean, if I wear a blue shirt to office today, I can tell my boss to take a walk? Or if I pick a lottery ticket with these three digits in it, I’ll become an instant millionaire? Aw, c'mon dude, stop kidding me. If it were that simple, we would all be enjoying pina coladas on a sunny beach doing nothing but reading horoscopes.
Now, tell me, do you still want to know what the stars say about you?
Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Why Companies Like Infosys Consistently Fail
Far from making it a software superpower, Indian technology firms seem to be struggling to remain relevant in the global market. The financial results of Infosys are just one indication. Here's why.
Once again, the financial results of the so-called Indian tech bellwether Infosys have disappointed – but there are much bigger concerns for its future.
In its recently declared results for the third quarter of 2010, Infosys made net income of $397 million on revenues of $1.58 billion for Q3 2010. This represents a year-on-year (YOY) growth of 28.7% in revenues and 18.9% in net income.
Despite growth in the numbers, shares of the company fell on both Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) on the news, mainly because analysts expected still better numbers. The company's less-than-encouraging future outlook did little to help matters.
This is a story that keeps repeating in the media – with slight variations – each quarter when the big daddies of Indian tech industry (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL and a couple others) declare financial results.
In most cases, analyst expectations are either barely met or missed by single-digit percentage points. Likewise, the stock of the company goes up or down a little – sometimes taking the BSE Sensex (sensitive index) down as well.
While this little see-saw of results keeps anaylsts and media busy, few are asking the bigger questions that face the future of Indian software industry as a whole. How long can the likes of Infosys, TCS and Wipro grow linearly on the basis of hiring more code-writers?
Can they make the next big leap from $4-5 billion companies they are today to $50 billion or $100 billion global corporations in the foreseeable future?
Can they rise significantly above their current minuscule share of 0.6% in the nearly $780 billion worldwide tech services market?
And most importantly, can their existing business models remain relevant in a world where sea changes are happening in the way consumers buy products, including software and applications? (Think of the app stores for anything from iPhones and iPads to Android-based smartphones.)
For decades, companies like Infosys have spawned an army of low-level software programmers, plunging them into projects for maintaining applications, providing technical support, managing systems, etc. Such work usually comes from big global corporations in various industry segments, who bought expensive hardware and software from companies that had the intellectual property (IBM, Oracle, SAP et al) and then began seeking cost reduction in maintaining or upgrading these systems.
Indian firms like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL and multinationals such as IBM and Accenture have been competing to get these tech projects, with Indian companies usually quoting lower and lower prices they charge clients on an hourly basis (now with large developer bases in India, MNCs can do that, too). Already, such rates seem to have hit rock bottom (around $10-15 per hour) and many Indian firms have increasingly focused on BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) for additional growth.
But again with BPO, the business model has been 'more bodies on the job for more projects'. And even in BPO, there has been a race to the bottom as far as pricing is concerned.
This is not the first time Indian firms are being criticized for their lack of vision and daring. But they have responded to such criticim with intermittent, half-hearted attempts like trying to 'move up the value chain in consulting' and developing or monetizing branded products. And they have consistently failed in achieving any speakable amount of success in anything other than hiring more people or spreading into more locations.
To be fair, Indian tech industry has given a new recognition to the country of snake charmers and roadside bovinity. But its success has been only modest, to be polite. While many in the industry and media gave India the moniker of a 'software superpower', advanced economies such as US, Germany and Japan have tech behemoths whose turnover still far exceeds the scrapings of the whole Indian tech industry.
So, it is this failure to grow beyond their existing business models and become world-class global corporations that should be more worrying for Indian technology firms than short-term needs to meet analyst expectations. Unfortunately, keeping shareholders happy and stock price afloat is where they spend their time and energy – instead of developing something that creates higher and lasting value.
It is well known that most top tech companies in India are awash with funds and have ample human resources (the biggies employ 100,000-plus people). But they like to keep the cash in banks or use it for things like hedging on currency fluctuations. Likewise, they keep their armies of techies happy with flashy campuses and infrastructure. But they do little to ingite any sparks of creativity in their people so that they could come up with the next Facebook or Zynga.
As I said before, that's where the likes of Infosys have consistently failed.
How long can they keep failing like this?
Once again, the financial results of the so-called Indian tech bellwether Infosys have disappointed – but there are much bigger concerns for its future.
In its recently declared results for the third quarter of 2010, Infosys made net income of $397 million on revenues of $1.58 billion for Q3 2010. This represents a year-on-year (YOY) growth of 28.7% in revenues and 18.9% in net income.
Despite growth in the numbers, shares of the company fell on both Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) on the news, mainly because analysts expected still better numbers. The company's less-than-encouraging future outlook did little to help matters.
This is a story that keeps repeating in the media – with slight variations – each quarter when the big daddies of Indian tech industry (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL and a couple others) declare financial results.
In most cases, analyst expectations are either barely met or missed by single-digit percentage points. Likewise, the stock of the company goes up or down a little – sometimes taking the BSE Sensex (sensitive index) down as well.
While this little see-saw of results keeps anaylsts and media busy, few are asking the bigger questions that face the future of Indian software industry as a whole. How long can the likes of Infosys, TCS and Wipro grow linearly on the basis of hiring more code-writers?
Can they make the next big leap from $4-5 billion companies they are today to $50 billion or $100 billion global corporations in the foreseeable future?
Can they rise significantly above their current minuscule share of 0.6% in the nearly $780 billion worldwide tech services market?
And most importantly, can their existing business models remain relevant in a world where sea changes are happening in the way consumers buy products, including software and applications? (Think of the app stores for anything from iPhones and iPads to Android-based smartphones.)
For decades, companies like Infosys have spawned an army of low-level software programmers, plunging them into projects for maintaining applications, providing technical support, managing systems, etc. Such work usually comes from big global corporations in various industry segments, who bought expensive hardware and software from companies that had the intellectual property (IBM, Oracle, SAP et al) and then began seeking cost reduction in maintaining or upgrading these systems.
Indian firms like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL and multinationals such as IBM and Accenture have been competing to get these tech projects, with Indian companies usually quoting lower and lower prices they charge clients on an hourly basis (now with large developer bases in India, MNCs can do that, too). Already, such rates seem to have hit rock bottom (around $10-15 per hour) and many Indian firms have increasingly focused on BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) for additional growth.
But again with BPO, the business model has been 'more bodies on the job for more projects'. And even in BPO, there has been a race to the bottom as far as pricing is concerned.
This is not the first time Indian firms are being criticized for their lack of vision and daring. But they have responded to such criticim with intermittent, half-hearted attempts like trying to 'move up the value chain in consulting' and developing or monetizing branded products. And they have consistently failed in achieving any speakable amount of success in anything other than hiring more people or spreading into more locations.
To be fair, Indian tech industry has given a new recognition to the country of snake charmers and roadside bovinity. But its success has been only modest, to be polite. While many in the industry and media gave India the moniker of a 'software superpower', advanced economies such as US, Germany and Japan have tech behemoths whose turnover still far exceeds the scrapings of the whole Indian tech industry.
So, it is this failure to grow beyond their existing business models and become world-class global corporations that should be more worrying for Indian technology firms than short-term needs to meet analyst expectations. Unfortunately, keeping shareholders happy and stock price afloat is where they spend their time and energy – instead of developing something that creates higher and lasting value.
It is well known that most top tech companies in India are awash with funds and have ample human resources (the biggies employ 100,000-plus people). But they like to keep the cash in banks or use it for things like hedging on currency fluctuations. Likewise, they keep their armies of techies happy with flashy campuses and infrastructure. But they do little to ingite any sparks of creativity in their people so that they could come up with the next Facebook or Zynga.
As I said before, that's where the likes of Infosys have consistently failed.
How long can they keep failing like this?
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Happening New Yeahhh
Time did not exist, but we invented it. We sliced and diced it as we wanted, adding a week here or a month there, to suit the calendar of our life.
It's curious that at the end of each year – not month, week, or day – we engage in a wishing war. Shooting off last minute SMSes or making turn-of-the-midnight phone calls in order to perch ourselves in the moments between the passing of the last year and the emergence of the new. Goodbye Old. Hello New.
I, too, do all of that. But I also like to take the opportunity that comes at the end of 365 days (sometimes after 366 days, for the mathematically minded) to turn my gaze inward. To think back, to reflect, to pause for a moment at the absurdities and profundities that went through the cauldron of my mind.
And if people share all those goodie goodie wishes, why not spill out some thoughts that indeed make us who we are? And that prod us to become what we want to be?
Please feel free to share anything you like or dislike below. Just don't forget to attribute the quote to me :)
Best wishes, then. Here you go:
Time flies
But tomorrow never dies;
It merely frolics in the lap of eternity,
Unfettered in the boundless skies...
* So many of us want to live the good life. But so few are willing to do good.
* Looking at the mess around us, we can now divide society into just one class - the Muddle Class.
* To avoid the coma of its aroma, give a bigger pause; use semi-cologne!
* The mere thought of children puts a smile on my face, a song in my heart and a supreme sense of blessedness in my soul.
* Being lost in time is often the only way to find our space.
* We often forget that being connected is more about listening than talking.
* For the rich the world is not enough; the poor don't know what is enough.
##
The child inside man never dies;
Only, more and more silent grow her cries
Of joy, of pain, of wonders infinite...
Ah, won't we be child again if time'd permit?
##
* We keep thinking of doing so much, without even taking the first step; all the same, we keep doing stuff we barely pause to think about. This mismatch between thoughts and actions is one of the key disconnects in the world today, isn't it?
* Life = death = life. . . Death is an interregnum; life, a continuum
* Inside God's mind at each apocalyptic moment: Aw shucks! I got it wrong once more. Now I have to start all over again. . .
* To cry sincerely is as important as to laugh freely. Perhaps more...
* In India you don't Do the Dew, you don't Do the New – you only Do the Queue...long, long queue.
* Difference between vampires and politicians? Vampires stop sucking after the victim is dead.
* For some dull people there's never a bulb moment.
* If God did play dice and won, would it be by chance?
* Kindness of the heart is in direct proportion to broadness of the mind.
* Truth can have many versions but it has only one character.
* I'm necessary but not sufficient: if I were not necessary, I'd not have been born; and if I were sufficient, I'd have been dead.
* We can wander much farther in our mind than we can in the physical universe.
* Man tends to be absent-minder; God, absent-bodied.
* Potential is not what you can do as a matter of routine; it is what you can achieve at the extreme edge of your abilities.
* Part of a writer's job is to reflect the true image of society. And do it with as little distortion as possible.
* The problem is neither with us nor with the world; it's always with the relationship between the two.
* Understanding comes with Dime – lots ov 'em! (with undue apologies to Time magazine)
* Too many meetings makes it discuss-ting!
* Flyovers in Delhi seem to have become Cryovers!
* It is not the truth that is ugly; it is our reluctance to face it.
* “Kentucky!” Cried Chicken. Or so it seemed. What the bird actually shouted before it was killed: “Can't-Take-It!”
* As long as there's possibility that the poorest man alive can be happier than the richest one kicking, there is hope.
* What do you call a complete ass? The Ass Whole.
* Not a fable: The Thirsty Grow.
* It is irrelevant whether the world was built bit by bit or all at once; the main thing is, it was built.
-0-
It's curious that at the end of each year – not month, week, or day – we engage in a wishing war. Shooting off last minute SMSes or making turn-of-the-midnight phone calls in order to perch ourselves in the moments between the passing of the last year and the emergence of the new. Goodbye Old. Hello New.
I, too, do all of that. But I also like to take the opportunity that comes at the end of 365 days (sometimes after 366 days, for the mathematically minded) to turn my gaze inward. To think back, to reflect, to pause for a moment at the absurdities and profundities that went through the cauldron of my mind.
And if people share all those goodie goodie wishes, why not spill out some thoughts that indeed make us who we are? And that prod us to become what we want to be?
Please feel free to share anything you like or dislike below. Just don't forget to attribute the quote to me :)
Best wishes, then. Here you go:
Time flies
But tomorrow never dies;
It merely frolics in the lap of eternity,
Unfettered in the boundless skies...
* So many of us want to live the good life. But so few are willing to do good.
* Looking at the mess around us, we can now divide society into just one class - the Muddle Class.
* To avoid the coma of its aroma, give a bigger pause; use semi-cologne!
* The mere thought of children puts a smile on my face, a song in my heart and a supreme sense of blessedness in my soul.
* Being lost in time is often the only way to find our space.
* We often forget that being connected is more about listening than talking.
* For the rich the world is not enough; the poor don't know what is enough.
##
The child inside man never dies;
Only, more and more silent grow her cries
Of joy, of pain, of wonders infinite...
Ah, won't we be child again if time'd permit?
##
* We keep thinking of doing so much, without even taking the first step; all the same, we keep doing stuff we barely pause to think about. This mismatch between thoughts and actions is one of the key disconnects in the world today, isn't it?
* Life = death = life. . . Death is an interregnum; life, a continuum
* Inside God's mind at each apocalyptic moment: Aw shucks! I got it wrong once more. Now I have to start all over again. . .
* To cry sincerely is as important as to laugh freely. Perhaps more...
* In India you don't Do the Dew, you don't Do the New – you only Do the Queue...long, long queue.
* Difference between vampires and politicians? Vampires stop sucking after the victim is dead.
* For some dull people there's never a bulb moment.
* If God did play dice and won, would it be by chance?
* Kindness of the heart is in direct proportion to broadness of the mind.
* Truth can have many versions but it has only one character.
* I'm necessary but not sufficient: if I were not necessary, I'd not have been born; and if I were sufficient, I'd have been dead.
* We can wander much farther in our mind than we can in the physical universe.
* Man tends to be absent-minder; God, absent-bodied.
* Potential is not what you can do as a matter of routine; it is what you can achieve at the extreme edge of your abilities.
* Part of a writer's job is to reflect the true image of society. And do it with as little distortion as possible.
* The problem is neither with us nor with the world; it's always with the relationship between the two.
* Understanding comes with Dime – lots ov 'em! (with undue apologies to Time magazine)
* Too many meetings makes it discuss-ting!
* Flyovers in Delhi seem to have become Cryovers!
* It is not the truth that is ugly; it is our reluctance to face it.
* “Kentucky!” Cried Chicken. Or so it seemed. What the bird actually shouted before it was killed: “Can't-Take-It!”
* As long as there's possibility that the poorest man alive can be happier than the richest one kicking, there is hope.
* What do you call a complete ass? The Ass Whole.
* Not a fable: The Thirsty Grow.
* It is irrelevant whether the world was built bit by bit or all at once; the main thing is, it was built.
-0-
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